Star Points for December, 2003; by Curtis Roelle New Star Rising in the East In October China joined a small and elite group of nations by launching a man into space. China is the third country to consummate a manned space program. But is China's intention peaceful or could there an ulterior motive for its movement in this new direction? The "taikonaut" who made history in China is 38 year old father of one, Lt. Col. Yang Liwei. Yang spent over 21 hours orbiting the earth 14 times. Yang joined the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) at age 18. He is among China's first group of 14 taikonauts which were selected in 1998. As in the American and Russian programs all those chosen for the first group were military pilots. It has been more than 40 years since a country launched one of its own citizens into earth orbit for the first time. The last occurrence was in 1962 when the United States sent John Glenn up on a three orbit mission. To me it is not so remarkable that another country has put a man in space as it is that it took so long to repeat that achievement. It's not as though China had not considered manned spaceflight earlier. Indeed, during the early years of the space race in the 1960's China's early dreams ran aground due to domestic concerns and a lack of technology resources, according to a Qi Faun, a Chinese rocket designer whose comments in China's Liberation Daily were reported by the Associated Press on October 9. The reasons given by China for its decision to send men into space sounds benign and familiar. They are similar to reasons given in past decades by the nations that pioneered manned spaceflight. Typical reasons involve opportunities for technological development and peaceful usage of space and its vast resources. Reasons that reminds one of a beauty pageant where each contestant expresses a cosmetic wish for "world peace." Indeed, the Associated Press quoted Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue who said, "Like many other nations, China's exploration of outer space is purely for peaceful purposes." In a refrain sounding like a typical cold war denial, Zhang went on to say, "China has always supported the `non-weaponization' of space. China will not take part in any arms race in space." Bursting with pride and propaganda, the People's Daily, a Chinese government mouthpiece, was quoted by Agence France Presse (AFP), saying (ellipses in original), "A manned program can push the development of technology ... manned space technology is a symbol of the state's comprehensive national strength and is a great boost to the country's national prestige." In either a moment of honest reflection or a tipping of China's hand, AFP quoted Chinese leader Deng Xiaopeng who said that without its space and nuclear programs "China cannot have the status as a major power in the world". The People's daily also pointed out that "A manned space program has great military implications that cannot be ignored." Indeed, two days after launch Bill Gertz reported on two items that went mostly unmentioned in the general media. First, a Chinese intelligence satellite riding piggyback on the same rocket with Col. Yang's spacecraft was released. Second, during his flight Yang had experimented with an infrared spy camera capable of resolving objects on the ground as small as 5 feet wide (1.6 meters). The U.S. military does not seem to be convinced by China's assurances of peaceful uses of space. Lieutenant General Edward Anderson, deputy commander of U.S. Northern Command, appears resigned to the eventual use of space for warfare. On October 16 The Sydney Morning Herald (Australia) quoted him saying, "In my view it will not be long before space becomes a battleground." Anderson went on to say (ellipses in original), "Our military forces ... depend very, very heavily on space capabilities, and so that is a statement of the obvious to our potential threat, whoever that may be." What kind of threats can our enemies wage from space? According to the general, "They can see that one of the ways that they can certainly diminish our capabilities will be to attack the space systems." By space systems he is referring to reconnaissance and communication satellites that our military forces and intelligence agencies rely on. The Pentagon is taking the potential Chinese threat seriously. Earlier this year it issued a report entitled, "The Military Power of the People's Republic of China." It detailed China's electronic warfare effort, including a high energy laser that could have applications as an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon. The Pentagon's report also made reference to certain statements from a Captain at the Chinese Navy Research Institute named Shen Zhongchang. He believes that a weaker military power can defeat a superior one by first attacking it's space-based communications and surveillance systems. The underdog could thus obtain the upper hand against a more powerful enemy by leaving them temporarily blind, deaf, dumb, and defenseless since the latter would be unable to communicate with and control its forces in the field. For those interested, the full report may be read on-line at http://www.defenselink.mil/pubs/20030730chinaex.pdf. Rich Haver, former special assistant for intelligence to Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and now vice president for intelligence strategy at Northrop Grumman Mission Systems, offered his own interpretation of the Chinese space effort this way: "I think the Chinese are telling us they're there, and I think if we ever wind up in a confrontation again with any one of the major powers who has a space capability we will find space is a battleground." Currently, China's only obvious military target is the Republic of China, a.k.a. Taiwan, which broke away from China in the last century. The Washington Times reported in November that the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) feels that China will not attack Taiwan within the next five years unless provoked. Such provocation could come in the form of acquisition by Taiwan of nuclear weapons. China currently has missiles capable of hitting Taiwan and is continuing work on improving missile accuracy. DIA is a member of the 15 member U.S. Intelligence Community. Lt. Col. Mark Stokes, director of the Taiwan desk at the Pentagon, thinks China's space program is closely linked to the Chinese military. According to Stokes, China's capabilities in space "will play a major role in any use of force against Taiwan and in preventing foreign intervention." The United States is Taiwan's foremost ally. According to China's director of Manned Space Program Engineering, Xie Mingbaom, China's future manned space program will proceed in several steps. Manned flights will resume within the next two years or so. After that, China hopes to put up a temporary space lab. After that China plans to construct its own space station. China has also expressed a desire to send humans to the Moon. One of the hurtles China will have to overcome is a fear of live broadcasts of its launches. October's launch was to have been shown live nationwide over a Chinese television network. However, that plan was scrubbed just prior to launch. It is believed that a spectacular failure observed live by millions of people would have been a major embarrassment and setback that would inflict a devastating wound in the nation's psyche and would have left it reeling. So the powers that be blinked. The United States began live television coverage of launches starting with the failed unmanned Vanguard satellites in the late 1950's. Live broadcasts continued with each manned Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo spacecraft. From the very start China cannot make a similar claim and has yet to play catch up in this regard. By not broadcasting the launch live China has allowed some grand and effortless propaganda points to swirl down the drain. Still, it must be exciting for China's scientists and engineers currently at the forefront of the world's newest dawn in manned spaceflight.